Nigeria’s crude oil production recorded a notable increase in March 2026, rising by 4.2 per cent to an average of 1.546 million barrels per day (mbpd), up from 1.483 mbpd in February, according to the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC).
Data from the Commission’s latest production report also showed that crude oil output, excluding condensates, grew by 5.2 per cent to 1.382 mbpd in March, compared to 1.313 mbpd recorded in the previous month. The increase reflects ongoing efforts to stabilise production levels and address longstanding challenges within the oil sector, including pipeline vandalism, crude theft, and operational inefficiencies.
Despite the improvement, Nigeria’s output remained below its production quota of 1.5 mbpd allocated by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), marking the third consecutive month the country has fallen short of the target. Production also trailed the 1.84 mbpd benchmark set in the nation’s 2026 budget, highlighting the gap between actual output and fiscal projections.
Further analysis of the data revealed fluctuations in daily production throughout the month, with the lowest output recorded at 1.4 mbpd and the peak reaching 1.84 mbpd. These variations underscore the persistent instability in production levels, even as authorities intensify efforts to boost capacity.
Recent indications, however, suggest that production may be on a recovery path. The Commission reported that output has recently rebounded to around 1.84 mbpd, raising optimism about the country’s ability to meet both its OPEC quota and budgetary targets if the momentum is sustained.
Reacting to the development, the Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Wale Edun, described the rebound in production as encouraging and aligned with the economic priorities of the federal government.
He noted that the improved output level is in line with the directive of President Bola Tinubu to ramp up oil production as a means of strengthening government revenue, stabilising the economy, and supporting fiscal planning.
Edun further urged stakeholders in the oil and gas sector to sustain the progress by addressing operational bottlenecks, enhancing security around oil infrastructure, and maintaining consistent production levels.
The latest figures highlight cautious optimism within the industry, as Nigeria continues its efforts to restore production capacity, improve revenue generation, and reinforce its position within the global oil market.
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