Nigeria’s revenue outlook for 2026 is projected to strengthen significantly, with the Nigeria Revenue Service (NRS) setting an ambitious target of ₦40.7 trillion. The projection reflects continued improvements in tax collection and enforcement recorded over the past five years.
The target exceeds the Federal Government’s budgeted revenue estimate of ₦34.3 trillion for 2026, indicating expectations of stronger domestic revenue mobilisation.
The projection was disclosed in Abuja by the Executive Director for Government and Large Taxpayers at the NRS, Mrs. Amina Ado Kurawa, during the agency’s 2026 Leadership Retreat. She noted that revenue collections between 2021 and 2025 increased more than fourfold, driven by reforms, improved compliance, and operational efficiency.
Kurawa explained that while oil revenue is expected to grow modestly by about 1.4 per cent in 2026 due to stable production but lower benchmark oil prices, gains would come mainly from Company Income Tax linked to oil operations, Petroleum Profits Tax, and Hydrocarbon Tax.
She added that non-oil revenue would remain the primary driver of growth, with collections projected to rise by 37.9 per cent to ₦24.836 trillion in 2026. Key contributors within this segment include Company Income Tax, Value Added Tax (VAT), and the Development Levy.
Kurawa also disclosed that royalty revenue has now been fully integrated into the national revenue framework following the expanded mandate of the NRS, creating an additional source of government income.
To meet the 2026 target, the Service plans to deepen stakeholder engagement on new tax laws, automate Petroleum Profits Tax, Hydrocarbon Tax, and royalty assessment processes, issue clearer compliance regulations, and improve audit efficiency while reducing audit timelines.
She said the agency would also strengthen collaboration with state governments and federal ministries, departments, and agencies to improve VAT and withholding tax remittances. In addition, the NRS is expanding the use of data analytics, including e-invoicing and government contract data, to close revenue gaps and enhance transparency.
Reviewing 2025 performance, Kurawa described it as one of the strongest in recent years, with total revenue rising by 30.4 per cent to ₦28.3 trillion, exceeding the annual target of ₦25.2 trillion by 12 per cent.
Oil tax revenue reached ₦6.8 trillion in 2025, representing 95 per cent of the annual oil revenue target, while non-oil tax revenue performed strongly, generating ₦21.5 trillion and exceeding its target by a significant margin.
Year-on-year, oil tax revenue increased by 19 per cent, while non-oil tax revenue grew by 35 per cent. Strong performance was recorded in Company Income Tax, VAT, Petroleum Profits Tax, and Hydrocarbon Tax, while Capital Gains Tax also recorded notable growth due to divestments in the oil and gas sector.
Kurawa attributed the improved performance to stricter enforcement measures, removal of routine filing extensions, organisational restructuring, expansion of the withholding tax system, automation of tax processes, and reforms in tax policy and legislation.
Speaking at the retreat, the Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Mr. Wale Edun, emphasised the importance of domestic revenue mobilisation amid growing global financial pressures. He noted that developing countries now face a situation where debt service payments exceed inflows from foreign investment and aid, making internal revenue generation essential for fiscal sustainability.
He said strengthening institutions like the NRS would play a critical role in supporting Nigeria’s economic stability and development.
Also speaking, the Executive Chairman of the NRS, Dr. Zacch Adedeji, urged leaders within the agency to embrace innovation, adaptability, and accountability, stressing that effective leadership would be key to sustaining reforms and achieving future revenue targets.
The Chairman of the National Tax Policy Implementation Committee, Mr. Joseph Tegbe, said Nigeria must focus on execution following the passage of key tax reforms, noting that expanding the tax base, improving voluntary compliance, and building public trust would be critical to strengthening the country’s revenue system.
He added that improving Nigeria’s tax-to-GDP ratio remains essential to reducing dependence on oil revenue and protecting the economy from external shocks.
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