There are growing indications that airfares may rise in the coming weeks following a sharp increase in the cost of aviation fuel, commonly known as Jet A1, a development already putting pressure on airline operations and pointing to higher ticket prices for passengers.
The surge in Jet A1 prices is largely linked to the crisis in the Middle East, which has disrupted crude oil production and movement across countries, worsening operating costs for domestic carriers.
Checks with airlines indicate a steep rise in operational expenses, driven mainly by the sharp increase in aviation fuel, which has emerged as the leading cost driver in recent weeks.
As of the time of this report, aviation fuel, previously sold at between N900 and N995 per litre before the Middle East crisis, has risen to between N2,500 and N2,700 depending on the airport of delivery, significantly increasing the cost burden on operators. Industry players say they are closely monitoring the situation, warning that an increase in airfares appears inevitable, with strong indications that ticket prices could double if the current trend continues.
Aviation fuel remains the single largest component of airline operations, accounting for about 30 to 35 per cent of total operating costs, a figure industry stakeholders say is rising rapidly under current conditions.
Airline sources say the price of the product has remained unstable since February 28, 2026, when the conflict in Iran began, changing about five times since then and making planning and pricing increasingly difficult.
The recent disagreement between airline operators and the Federal Competition and Consumer Protection Commission has added another layer to the situation. The commission had accused some airlines of price fixing, an allegation the operators denied.
Industry stakeholders argue that despite aviation fuel prices rising beyond N2,000 per litre, many carriers have continued to maintain fares at around N195,000, raising concerns over how long such pricing can be sustained under prevailing economic realities.
Operators warn that the situation could worsen further if fuel prices climb to N3,000 per litre, stressing that not all airlines may be able to remain in operation under such pressure. That could further reduce capacity and push fares even higher.
There are also concerns that Nigeria’s limited crude oil supply to domestic refiners has worsened the situation, forcing increased imports and adding to pricing pressure. With crude oil prices reportedly climbing from about $65–$69 to around $112 per barrel, the cost of aviation fuel has continued to rise, bringing airlines closer to unavoidable fare adjustments.
The impact has also driven up gantry prices, with operators warning that sustained increases will eventually be passed on to passengers through higher ticket fares.
Aviation experts project an imminent increase in airfares, attributing it to the growing burden of operating costs on airlines, especially as aviation fuel now takes up a much larger share of total expenses.
They note that the cost structure in the sector has shifted significantly. While maintenance used to account for the highest share of airline expenses, the persistent increase in Jet A1 prices has changed the picture, making fuel the dominant cost component and placing operators under greater financial pressure.
Analysts say that if the current trend continues, airfares could rise by 20 to 25 per cent in the coming days.
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