Nigeria’s economy is projected to record its strongest growth performance in more than ten years, following an upward revision of the country’s economic outlook by the World Bank. The global financial institution has upgraded its growth forecast for Nigeria to 4.4 per cent in both 2026 and 2027, signaling renewed optimism about the country’s economic trajectory.
According to the updated projections, the revised figures represent a significant improvement over earlier estimates, reflecting stronger-than-expected economic performance and the positive impact of ongoing reforms. The new forecast marks an increase of 0.7 and 0.6 percentage points from earlier growth expectations of 3.7 per cent and 3.8 per cent, respectively.
The World Bank noted that Nigeria’s economy had already shown signs of acceleration, with growth rising to 4.2 per cent in 2025. This improvement, the institution said, was largely driven by robust expansion in the services sector, particularly in financial services and information and communication technology, which continue to play a central role in driving economic activity.
In addition to services, a modest recovery in the agricultural sector contributed to the improved performance, alongside Nigeria’s emergence as a net exporter of refined petroleum products, following increased domestic refining capacity. These developments helped strengthen overall output and reduce reliance on imported refined fuels.
Looking ahead, the World Bank projects that economic growth will further strengthen in 2026 and 2027, reaching 4.4 per cent in each year, a pace not recorded in over a decade. The anticipated acceleration is expected to be supported by sustained growth in the services sector, a rebound in agricultural production, and a gradual improvement in non-oil industrial activity.
The institution also highlighted the role of economic reforms, particularly those targeting the tax system, as well as the continuation of prudent monetary policy, in supporting economic stability and growth. These reforms are expected to enhance revenue mobilisation, strengthen macroeconomic management, and foster a more predictable business environment.
According to the World Bank, improved policy consistency and macroeconomic discipline are likely to boost investor confidence, attract both domestic and foreign investment, and contribute to a further reduction in inflationary pressures. Additionally, higher oil production levels are expected to help offset the impact of lower global oil prices, supporting government revenues and improving Nigeria’s external balance.
Despite the optimistic outlook, the World Bank cautioned that sustaining the projected growth momentum will require addressing long-standing structural challenges that have historically constrained Nigeria’s economic potential. The institution noted that although fiscal rules were adopted as far back as 2007 to reduce the economy’s vulnerability to oil price volatility, weak institutional frameworks have often undermined effective enforcement.
As a result, Nigeria’s record on fiscal discipline has remained uneven, limiting the long-term impact of previous reform efforts. The World Bank stressed that strengthening institutions, improving transparency, and ensuring consistent policy implementation will be critical to achieving durable and inclusive growth.
Current reform initiatives, the institution noted, are aimed at removing these structural bottlenecks and laying the foundation for sustained economic expansion that benefits a broader segment of the population. Ensuring that growth translates into job creation, poverty reduction, and improved living standards remains a key priority.
Beyond Nigeria, the World Bank also provided an outlook for the global economy, noting that it has demonstrated greater resilience than previously anticipated, despite ongoing trade tensions, geopolitical uncertainties, and policy challenges across major economies.
Global growth is projected to remain relatively stable over the next two years, easing slightly to 2.6 per cent in 2026 before picking up to 2.7 per cent in 2027. These figures represent an upward revision compared to earlier forecasts, reflecting stronger economic fundamentals and improved adaptability across regions.
The World Bank, however, warned that persistent uncertainty in global trade policies and geopolitical developments could still pose risks to growth, underscoring the importance of sound domestic policies and international cooperation.
For Nigeria, the revised growth outlook offers cautious optimism, suggesting that sustained reform momentum, improved governance, and targeted investments could position the country for its strongest economic performance in more than a decade, provided current gains are consolidated and structural weaknesses effectively addressed.
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